Italia e rating, arriva il downgrading. Bisogna sorprendersi?
La notizia è di ieri sera. S&P, l’agenzia di rating che già ha abbassato la mannaia su rating del debito USA, ha deciso di tagliare anche il rating sul debito italiano. E se Moody’s si era presa un po’ di tempo, S&P invece non di pensa su e taglia con un bel outlook negativo.
La cosa non deve sorprendere in quanto….cosa diavolo si poteva pretendere? Non dimentichiamo infatti che oggi più che mai, per le agenzie di rating sono fondamentali fattori come credibilità (ehhh…ultimamente il nostro governo forse un pochino la faccia l’ha persa…), crescita economica (tasto dolentissimo, ora poi con l’inizio della vera austerity le cose peggioreranno ulteriomente), tenuta del volume del debito pubblico (ultimamente ancora aumentato) e del deficit. Inoltre lo scenario sullo spread Bund BTP continua ad essere molto complesso con mamma BCE che compra e sostiene la quotazione dei titoli di Stato italiani, e con l’EFSF che addirittua potrà indebitarsi sempre per o stesso fine sopra descritto.
LA MAPPA DEL RATING ITALIA
Sept 20 (Reuters) – Standard and Poor’s cut its unsolicited ratings on Italy by one notch, warning of a deteriorating growth outlook and damaging political uncertainty, in a move that took markets by surprise and added to pressure on the debt-stressed euro zone.
S&P’s downgraded its unsolicited ratings on Italy to A/A-1 from A+/A-1+ and kept its outlook on negative, sending the euro more than half a cent lower against the dollar.
The agency, which put Italy on review for downgrade in May, said that the outlook for growth was worsening and there was little sign that Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s fractious centre-right government could respond effectively.
Under mounting pressure to cut its 1.9 trillion euro debt pile, the government pushed a 59.8 billion euro austerity plan through parliament last week, pledging a balanced budget by 2013.
But there has been little confidence that the much-revised package of tax hikes and spending cuts, agreed only after repeated chopping and changing, will do anything to address Italy’s underlying problem of persistent stagnant growth.
“We believe the reduced pace of Italy’s economic activity to date will make the government’s revised fiscal targets difficult to achieve,” S&P’s said in a statement.
“Furthermore, what we view as the Italian government’s tentative policy response to recent market pressures suggests continuing future political uncertainty about the means of addressing Italy’s economic challenges,” it said.
Budgetary savings may not be possible because the government is relying heavily on revenue increases in a country that already has a high tax burden and is facing weakening economic growth prospects, S&P said. In addition, market interest rates are expected to rise, it said.
Berlusconi’s coalition has been plagued by infighting and policy disagreements and the prime minister himself has been battling a widening prostitution scandal which has distracted the government and badly damaged his personal credibility.
On Monday, Italian sources said the government was preparing to cut its growth forecast to 0.7 percent in 2011 from a previous forecast of 1.1 percent and cut its 2012 forecast to “1 percent or below.” (Source)
Stay Tuned!
DT
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